Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 655 PM EST Thu Feb 1 2024 Valid 12Z Mon Feb 5 2024 - 12Z Fri Feb 9 2024 ***Bitterly cold temperatures to linger over the eastern Interior through this weekend*** ...Overview... A deep upper low will affect much of the Aleutians and the Bering into early next week with increased prospects for precipitation and gusty winds for portions of the Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula. Brutally cold conditions over the weekend are forecast to improve going into next week as the deep upper trough departs and broad upper ridging tries to build northward across some of the mainland from the Gulf region. Most of the Interior should remain mostly dry. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The 12Z model guidance suite, along with the 18Z GFS, is showing slightly more disagreement than usual for the synoptic scale pattern, including as early as Monday. The greatest differences early on exist across the northern Gulf region regarding the timing of individual shortwave perturbations, and also across the Arctic Coast region. Differences become substantial across the eastern Gulf by midweek regarding a potential trough/upper low, and then across the entire domain by the end of the week. There is general agreement that a broad upper level low will exist across the Bering, but limited confidence with low pressure systems pivoting around the main upper low. Therefore, the ensemble means accounted for about 2/3 of the model blend by next Friday to account for the uncertainty, and some previous WPC continuity for the Monday through Thursday time period. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Additional surface lows into early next week will continue to keep unsettled conditions across the Aleutians and farther east towards Southwestern Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula with onshore flow for these areas, then downstream for southern to Southeast Alaska. This will be fueled by general moist southerly flow as surface lows split over the North Pacific into the northern Gulf of Alaska, with periodic activity with weakened systems working across the Gulf of Alaska toward the Southeast Panhandle region. However, most of the precipitation should be light for the majority of locations affected. There should be an overall improvement of the frigid pattern over the mainland as upper ridging builds over the state. By next Monday-Tuesday, the greatest moderation should be across western Alaska and the North Slope along with parts of Southwest Alaska, and a strong contrast to conditions currently. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html