Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 655 PM EST Fri Feb 2 2024 Valid 12Z Tue Feb 6 2024 - 12Z Sat Feb 10 2024 ...General Overview... A deep upper low will be in place across much of the Aleutians and the Bering Sea into early next week with increased prospects for precipitation and gusty winds for portions of the Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula. Temperatures are forecast to warm up considerably going into next week as the deep upper trough departs and broad upper ridging tries to build northward across the mainland from the Gulf region. Unsettled conditions may return to south-central portions of the state by next Friday/Saturday as another low pressure system becomes better organized. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The 12Z model guidance suite, along with the 18Z GFS, continues to indicate slightly more disagreement than usual for the synoptic scale pattern, especially by Thursday and beyond. The greatest differences early on exist across the northern Gulf region regarding the timing of individual shortwave perturbations, and also across the Arctic Coast region. Differences become substantial across the eastern Gulf by midweek regarding a potential trough/upper low, and then across the entire domain by the end of the week and into Saturday. There is general agreement that a broad upper level low will exist across the Bering, but limited confidence with low pressure systems pivoting around the main upper low. Therefore, the ensemble means accounted for about 2/3 of the model blend by next Saturday to account for the uncertainty, and some previous WPC continuity for the Tuesday through Friday time period. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A steady moderating trend is expected to be underway early in the week as temperatures return to above average across central and eastern portions of the mainland, which is in stark contrast to the absolutely frigid conditions that are currently in place across much of the state. The Yukon Flats will be the slowest to warm up compared to other parts of the mainland, and the greatest positive anomalies are expected to be across the southwestern mainland and the Seward Peninsula going into the middle of the week. In terms of precipitation, periods of onshore flow across the central/eastern Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula will keep precipitation chances in play for much of the week, with generally light to moderate intensity levels, although locally heavy rain/mountain snow is possible where orographic forcing is enhanced. Strong southeasterly winds are also likely across portions of the Alaska Peninsula on Tuesday ahead of a low pressure system entering the Gulf of Alaska region. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html