Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 655 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2024 Valid 12Z Wed Feb 7 2024 - 12Z Sun Feb 11 2024 ...General Overview... A deep upper low will initially be in place across much of the Aleutians and the Bering Sea for the middle of the week with increased prospects for precipitation and gusty winds for the Alaska Peninsula. A second storm system is forecast to approach the southern coastal areas towards the end of the week with additional snow and rain near the coast, and possibly a third system trailing behind it towards next Sunday. Temperatures will continue warming up going into next week with upper level ridging developing over the mainland. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The 12Z model guidance suite has come into better overall agreement compared to yesterday on the main synoptic scale features across the Alaska domain, including the North Pacific low that will likely affect the northern Gulf towards the end of the week. In terms of differences, the GFS is generally stronger with the Bering Sea low for mid-week, but generally in good agreement elsewhere on Wednesday. Overall, there has been a slower trend in the latest guidance for the late week low over the Gulf, with the GFS generally on the east side of the model spread, and a rapid weakening trend is expected once the low reaches the coast. By Sunday, models vary more on location of the third system to affect the state, with the ECMWF taking this low closer to the coast compared to the offshore GFS/CMC. The ensemble means comprised about half of the model blend by next weekend to account for the increasing uncertainty, and some previous WPC continuity for the Wednesday through Saturday time period. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A steady moderating trend is expected to be underway early in the week as temperatures return to above average across central and eastern portions of the mainland, which is in stark contrast to the absolutely frigid conditions that are currently in place across much of the state. The Yukon Flats will be the slowest to warm up compared to other parts of the mainland, and the greatest positive anomalies are expected to be across the southwestern mainland and the Seward Peninsula going into the middle of the week with strong warm air advection in place. In terms of precipitation, periods of onshore flow across the central/eastern Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula will keep precipitation chances in play for much of the week, with generally light to moderate intensity levels, although locally heavy rain/mountain snow is possible where orographic forcing is enhanced. There is even the chance for some sleet and freezing rain across portions of southwestern Alaska Tuesday night into early Wednesday with boundary layer temperatures possibly getting above freezing. Strong southeasterly winds are also likely across portions of the Alaska Peninsula on Tuesday ahead of a low pressure system entering the Gulf of Alaska region. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html