Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 623 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2024 Valid 12Z Thu Feb 8 2024 - 12Z Mon Feb 12 2024 ...General Overview... An active winter pattern will continue across the Alaska domain going into the extended forecast period with multiple North Pacific storm systems tracking northeast towards the Gulf region, bringing rounds of coastal rain and inland heavy snow for the southern mountain ranges. These low pressure systems will be pivoting around a broader upper level low centered roughly over the southern Bering Sea region for the end of the week and through the weekend. Meanwhile, a downstream upper level ridge axis is progged to extend from western Canada to the central and eastern mainland of Alaska, keeping relatively mild conditions in place, especially compared to the recent brutally cold weather. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The 12Z model guidance suite has a good overall depiction of the synoptic scale pattern across the state to close out the work week. There are some minor timing and placement differences with the incoming low pressure system approaching the western Gulf by Friday, with the ECMWF generally southeast of the model consensus and stronger as it approaches the coast, whereas the CMC/GFS and the ensemble means favor a more western and weaker track overall. The UKMET has some support from the ECMWF in terms of placement, but generally weaker. Looking ahead to the weekend, model spread grows substantially across the North Pacific and the Gulf with the timing of subsequent low pressure systems, but the feature with the greatest model agreement is the general upper ridge axis across the eastern half of the state. A general model blend sufficed as a starting point in the forecast process for Thursday and Friday, followed by more of the ensemble means through the weekend and then accounting for a majority of the blend by next Monday. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Precipitation prospects increase going into Friday and Saturday with the strong low pressure entering the Gulf region and southeasterly winds advecting moisture towards the coastal terrain of the Alaska Peninsula and extending eastward to the Prince William Sound region. Several feet of mountain snow is likely for these areas, and a cold and heavy rain for the coast. Overall, there has been an upward trend in model QPF during this time period. Farther north across the mainland, a mostly dry weather pattern can be expected. In terms of temperatures, generally above average conditions are forecast for most inland areas, and closer to average for the coastal regions. Sheltered valleys with persistent inversions that are slower to mix out will be substantially colder than surrounding hillsides. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html