Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 640 PM EST Mon Feb 5 2024 Valid 12Z Fri Feb 9 2024 - 12Z Tue Feb 13 2024 ...General Overview... An active winter pattern will continue across the Alaska domain going into the extended forecast period with multiple North Pacific storm systems tracking northeast towards the Gulf region and the Aleutians, bringing rounds of coastal rain and inland heavy snow for the southern mountain ranges. These low pressure systems will be pivoting around a broader upper level low centered roughly over the southern Bering Sea region for the end of the week and through the weekend. Meanwhile, a downstream upper level ridge axis is progged to extend from western Canada to the central and eastern mainland of Alaska, keeping relatively mild conditions in place, especially compared to the recent brutally cold weather. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The 12Z model guidance suite has a decent overall depiction of the synoptic scale pattern across the state to close out the work week. There are some minor timing and placement differences with the incoming low pressure system approaching the western Gulf by Friday, and there has been an overall faster and stronger trend compared to yesterday in bringing the low towards the coast. Looking ahead to the weekend, model spread grows substantially across the North Pacific and south of the Alaska Peninsula with the timing of subsequent low pressure systems, but the feature with the greatest model agreement is the general upper ridge axis across the eastern half of the state, similar to what was seen in yesterday's guidance. A general model blend sufficed as a starting point in the forecast process for Friday into early Saturday, followed by more of the ensemble means for the Sunday through Tuesday time period, with more weighting towards the 12Z NAEFS. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Precipitation prospects increase going into Friday and Saturday with the strong low pressure entering the Gulf region and southeasterly winds advecting deep moisture towards the coastal terrain of the Alaska Peninsula and extending eastward to the Prince William Sound region. Several feet of mountain snow is likely for these areas, and a cold and heavy rain for the coast with 1 to 3 inches of rainfall likely some areas. There has been an additional upward trend in model QPF during this time period over the past 48 hours of model runs. Farther north across the mainland, a mostly dry weather pattern can be expected. In terms of temperatures, generally above average conditions are forecast for most inland areas, and closer to average for the coastal regions. Sheltered valleys with persistent inversions that are slower to mix out will be substantially colder than surrounding hillsides. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html