Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 652 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 12Z Mon Feb 19 2024 - 12Z Fri Feb 23 2024 ...Stormy Bering Sea/Aleutians to Gulf of Alaska pattern with a Heavy Precipitation focus into South-Central Alaska and Vicinity... ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET solutions seem reasonably well clustered valid Monday into Wednesday. 12 UTC GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means then remain compatible into later next week amid gradually growing forecast spread. A composite of these solutions over these time frames maintains good WPC product continuity in a pattern with seemingly near average overall predictability. ...Pattern Overview and Weather/Hazards Highlights... Guidance still shows a deep storm near the western Aleutians drifting over the Bering Sea and weakening into early next week, while ample shortwave energies flowing around the southern/eastern side of the associated closed upper trough/low posiiton over the Bering Sea keeps a lead north Pacific/southeast Bering Sea to Gulf of Alaska storm track active and conditions unsettled/gusty and wet, with deeper lows and moisture fetch periodically enhanced from into Southwest Alaska/Alaska Peninsula/Kodiak Island through especially South-Central to Yakatat and vicinity. These organized systems will tend to weaken, but remain active, as they reach the coast given upper ridging lingering downstream up into the Mainland through much of the period. The heavy precipitation threat may invigirate middle to later next week with deeper low approach. In this pattern the Aleutians will see precipitation and gusty to strong winds. Much of Mainland Alaska should be generally dry next week, albeit with some uncertain and local modest precipitation supporting upper energies to work around the periphery and with much uncertainty into into the ambient upper ridge. Initial upper ridging, and then continued Pacific influence even with some erosion of the ridge, will favor above normal temperatures across most of the state. Expect the greatest anomalies to be in the western to northern parts of the mainland, with values upward to 30 degrees milder than normal lingering into early next week. Some cooling will be possible next week, but still with above normal anomalies. Some pockets of near to slightly below normal temperatures will be possible over the eastern Interior and mostly for daytime highs over portions of the Panhandle/Aleutians. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html