Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 620 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 12Z Tue Feb 20 2024 - 12Z Sat Feb 24 2024 ...Stormy Bering Sea/Aleutians to Gulf of Alaska Pattern with a Heavy Precipitation focus from South-Central to Southeast Alaska... ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian model solutions seem reasonably well clustered valid Tuesday into Thursday and enjoy good ensemble support. The GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means remain compatible with the GFS/ECMWF later next week to maintain detail with a series of deep and dynamic storms amid slowly growing forecast spread. A composite maintains good WPC product continuity in a pattern with seemingly rising predictability as forecast spread has trended downward over the last few guidance cycles. ...Pattern Overview and Weather/Hazards Highlights... Energetic shortwave energies aloft flowing around the southern/eastern side of a dominant closed upper trough/low posiiton over the Bering Sea/Aleutians will keep a lead north Pacific to western Alaska and especially energetic split storm track over the Gulf of Alaska active with highly unsettled/gusty and wet conditions. These will offer a protracted maritime threat. Deepened lows and long fetch moisture/atmospheric rivers will enhance precipitation into the Alaska Peninsula/Kodiak Island, and more earnestly from South-Central to Southeast Alaska over time, increasingly working into a lead upper ridge. These organized systems will tend to weaken, but remain active, as they reach the coast given the upper ridging lingering downstream up into the Mainland. The heavy precipitation threat may be invigirated into middle to later next week with deeper/larger low approach. Meanwhile, the Aleutians will see periods of precipitation and strong/gusty winds, especially through next midweek. Much of interior Mainland Alaska should be generally dry next week, albeit with periodic moderate precipitation into Southwest Alaska as supporting upper energies work on the periphery of the downstream upper ridge position. In this pattern, locally gusty to strong winds may also act to forcably blow around snows up through western to Northwest Alaska as energies lift poleward. Initial upper ridging, and then continued Pacific influence even with some erosion of the ridge, will favor above normal temperatures across most of the state. Expect the greatest anomalies to be in the western to northern parts of the mainland, with values upward to 30 degrees milder than normal lingering into early next week. Some cooling will be possible next week, but still with above normal anomalies. Some pockets of near to slightly below normal temperatures will be possible over the eastern Interior and mostly for daytime highs over portions of the Panhandle/Aleutians. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html