Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 454 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 12Z Fri Feb 23 2024 - 12Z Tue Feb 27 2024 ...Stormy Pattern Continues for Alaska... ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian model solutions are overall well clustered into next weekend in active flow and have good ensemble support. A favored composite offers maximum system detail consistent with a pattern with seemingly above normal predictability and improving run to run consistency. Added into the blend input from the ECMWF ensemble mean into next week amid growing forecast spread. This ensemble mean seems best compatible with the models at these longer time frames. WPC product continuity is reasonably well maintained, but system timings will remain an issue with such strong upper jet flow. ...Pattern Overview and Weather/Hazards Highlights... Expect an increasing dynamic flow pattern as a powerhouse east Asian upper jet punches eastward across the northern Pacific toward Alaska around the base of an amplified Bering Sea mean upper low/trough position. In this pattern, expect protracted gusty winds through the Aleutians. Energy/height falls with the upper trough are expected to work through the Bering Sea and toward the mainland. Unsettled conditions with inland working systems will include some locally enhanced winds and periods of light to moderate snow up through Southwest and over a cooling North Slope/Interior with downstream translation. Cooling may be significantly enhanced into early next week with less certain digging/intrusion of unsettling Arctic stream energy down through the mainland. Meanwhile underneath, the potent upper jet and embedded upper trough system energies will slam eastward to the Gulf of Alaska, spreading a threat for high winds. This and associated surface based system development and track of a series of organized lows to the south of the Aleutians and across the Gulf will periodically enhance precipitation from the Alaska Peninsula/Kodiak Island through SouthCentral and Southeast Alaska into late week/weekend as fueled by long fetch moisture, with greater uncertainty into next week to monitor and update. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html