Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 24 2024 - 12Z Wed Feb 28 2024
...Unsettled pattern for southern Alaska, with cooling conditions
across Mainland Alaska...
...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...
The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian model solutions are overall
well clustered into early next week within an active flow pattern
and have good ensemble support. A favored composite offers maximum
system detail consistent with a pattern with seemingly above
normal predictability and reasonable run to run consistency. WPC
product continuity is reasonably well maintained, but system
timing could be an issue within the progressive flow pattern.
...Pattern Overview and Weather/Hazards Highlights...
A couple of cyclones move through the Gulf of Alaska and the
northeast Pacific this period, with the second system expected to
be stronger and more southerly than the first. Both should bring
gale to storm force winds across the AK Peninsula, with the second
tracking far enough to the south to lead to enhanced gap flow to
the AK Panhandle late in the period which could bring them gale
force winds as well. With the storm track edging southward with
the jet stream, colder conditions are expected to spread south
from the North Slope across the Interior into southern AK and the
AK Panhandle, with increasingly large areas of real estate
dropping below 0F, if not -20F, with time. Normally colder
eastern interior locations could flirt with -40F readings for
overnight lows. For wetter southern areas, rain should slowly
transition to snow as the colder air from increasing offshore flow
filters in.
Roth
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html