Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 408 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 12Z Sat Feb 24 2024 - 12Z Wed Feb 28 2024 ...Unsettled pattern for southern Alaska, with cooling conditions across Mainland Alaska... ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian model solutions are overall well clustered into early next week within an active flow pattern and have good ensemble support. A favored composite offers maximum system detail consistent with a pattern with seemingly above normal predictability and reasonable run to run consistency. WPC product continuity is reasonably well maintained, but system timing could be an issue within the progressive flow pattern. ...Pattern Overview and Weather/Hazards Highlights... A couple of cyclones move through the Gulf of Alaska and the northeast Pacific this period, with the second system expected to be stronger and more southerly than the first. Both should bring gale to storm force winds across the AK Peninsula, with the second tracking far enough to the south to lead to enhanced gap flow to the AK Panhandle late in the period which could bring them gale force winds as well. With the storm track edging southward with the jet stream, colder conditions are expected to spread south from the North Slope across the Interior into southern AK and the AK Panhandle, with increasingly large areas of real estate dropping below 0F, if not -20F, with time. Normally colder eastern interior locations could flirt with -40F readings for overnight lows. For wetter southern areas, rain should slowly transition to snow as the colder air from increasing offshore flow filters in. Roth Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html