Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 422 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 12Z Mon Feb 26 2024 - 12Z Fri Mar 01 2024 ...Unsettled pattern for southern Alaska, with cooling conditions across western and southern Mainland Alaska... ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian model solutions showed reasonable agreement into early next week within a buckling/amplifying flow pattern around the North Pacific as a whole with troughing becoming established on both sides of the Pacific with ridging developing across portions of the Bering Sea, though detail issues remain. A favored composite offers maximum system detail consistent with a pattern with seemingly above normal predictability and reasonable run to run consistency. WPC product continuity is reasonably well maintained. ...Pattern Overview and Weather/Hazards Highlights... A cyclone moves through the Aleutians and southern Bering Sea into southwest AK, before secondary development occurs in the Gulf of Alaska and the cyclone broadens in scale while moving south to southeastward within an amplifying flow regime across the Pacific. A larger cyclone moves northward offshore Asia and impacts the western and central Aleutians towards mid next week. The southern tier of the state, including the Aleutians, will be wetter/snowier than locations farther north due to the expected storm track. Gale to storm force winds are anticipated at times across the Aleutians, AK Peninsula, and near Kodiak Island, particularly in areas of gap flow/areas that usually deal with accelerated winds in northwesterly low-level flow. After the cyclone redevelops south of Alaska, colder conditions are expected to spread through western and southern AK mid next week (Tuesday through next Thursday). Normally colder eastern interior and northern locations could flirt with -40F readings for overnight lows. For wetter southern areas, rain in the Aleutians and snow in southern mainland Alaska, including the AK Panhandle. is expected within the cold air mass. Roth Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html