Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 27 2024 - 12Z Sat Mar 02 2024
...Unsettled pattern for southernmost Alaska, with colder
conditions across southwest Mainland Alaska...
...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...
The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian model solutions showed good
agreement into mid to late next week within a buckling/amplifying
flow pattern around the North Pacific as a whole with troughing
becoming established on both sides of the Pacific with ridging
developing across portions of the Bering Sea and eastern Asia. A
favored composite offers maximum system detail consistent with a
pattern with seemingly above normal predictability and reasonable
run to run consistency. WPC product continuity is very well
maintained.
...Pattern Overview and Weather/Hazards Highlights...
A cyclone in the Gulf of Alaska broadens in scale while moving
south to southeastward within an amplifying flow regime across the
Pacific. A larger cyclone moves northward offshore Asia and
impacts the western and central Aleutians mid to late next week.
The southern tier of the state, including the Aleutians, will be
wetter/snowier than locations farther north due to the expected
storm track, though there was a southward trend noted in the QPF
compared to this time yesterday. Gale to storm force winds are
anticipated at times across the Aleutians, AK Peninsula, and near
Kodiak Island, particularly in areas of gap flow/areas that
usually deal with accelerated winds in northwesterly low-level
flow. Colder conditions are expected to spread through southwest
mainland AK mid next week (Tuesday through next Thursday).
Normally colder eastern interior and northern locations could
flirt with -40F readings for overnight lows. For wetter southern
areas, rain in the Aleutians and snow in southern mainland Alaska,
including the AK Panhandle. is expected within the cold air mass.
Roth
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html