Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 653 PM EST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 12Z Mon Mar 11 2024 - 12Z Fri Mar 15 2024 ...General Overview... Much colder temperatures will already be in place across parts of northern and west/southwest Mainland/Interior and will begin to slowly moderate by the later part of the period. Multiple low pressure systems will track south of the Aleutians and into the northern Gulf keeping precipitation focused across the Southern Coast, Southeast Alaska, and adjacent mountain ranges. ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... In general, the synoptic pattern of mean trough/upper low setting up over western Alaska and Gulf of Alaska with multiple lows tracking through the flow remains consistent. Forecast confidence continues to be about average given model differences on timing, location and depth for each individual feature - particularly with those tracking across the Gulf. The WPC preferred approach started with the 12Z/06Z GFS and 12Z CMC/UKMET/ECWMF and then included the GEFS mean and EC ensemble means by the middle period while dropping the UKMET. This approach stayed near continuity with the previous WPC Alaska forecast. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Most of Southeast Alaska and portions of the southern coast will be in an active wet pattern through the extended period as a few surface lows and frontal systems affect the region. Precipitation (rain and mountain snow) should extend back into the Southeast Coast/AK Peninsula and portions of the mainland under general unsettled flow/troughing, but not as heavy. Multiple systems maintaining rain across this part of the region coinciding with a warm up in temperatures across the Southeast that may lead to snow melt increasing the potential for runoff across the Panhandle. The period with the best potential for moderate/heavy rain will be Wednesday into Thursday.The Aleutians should stay wet and unsettled for much of the forecast period as several systems move through the region. Temperatures for a vast portion of western Alaska will be quite cold into the first half of the week which will be much below average for early/mid March. Widespread subzero lows are expected for western and northern portions of the mainland, with perhaps some -30s across the normally colder locations of the North Slope Campbell Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html