Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
615 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 14 2024 - 12Z Thu Apr 18 2024
...Synoptic Overview, Guidance Evaluation, & Preferences...
As the current storm moves through the mainland and southeast
Alaska over the next few days, the start of the forecast period
will be on the quieter side, aside from lingering precipitation
and departing shortwave energy across SE Alaska. In its wake, a
mostly zonal/progressive flow pattern across the mainland will
bring periodic ripples/waves but nothing too significant. A wavy
frontal pattern will exist over the area. By late in the forecast
period (mid/late week), some indications of a stronger shortwave
trough approaching the western mainland or the Aleutians but
guidance differs considerably by day 7-8.
The 12Z guidance show good agreement and run to run consistency
through about day 6 such that a near equal blend of the available
deterministic guidance was used for the model blend (12Z GFS,
ECMWF, CMC, and UKMET). Beyond Day 6, there was increasing model
spread, especially across the Aleutians, western mainland and in
the Gulf of Alaska.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
In southern AK, general troughing should keep the Southern
Coast/Southeast/Panhandle generally unsettled through at least the
weekend. The West may dry out this weekend, but shortwaves
interacting with a front across the interior appear to bring
another round of accumulating snow to parts of northwest Alaska
early next week. Temperatures across the southern half of the
state should stay cool much of the period, trending milder at
times as broad ridging attempts to build. The strongest anomalies
are likely across the Southeast. Northern Alaska should stay
milder than average the entire period, but moderating somewhat
this weekend as additional shortwave energy slides through the
region and increases precipitation/snow chances.
Taylor
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html