Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 516 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 12Z Fri May 03 2024 - 12Z Tue May 07 2024 ...Aleutians to Gulf of Alaska Storm Threat Thursday to Sunday... ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... Latest 12 UTC ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian and to a slightly lesser extent the 12 UTC GFS model solutions remain well clustered and supported by multi-model ensembles Friday into Sunday in a pattern with above normal predictability. A composite solution provides a solid forecast basis and detail. Prefer best clustered ECMWF/Canadian ensemble means into longer time frames to offer maximum system and WPC product continuity. Manually applied adjustments offset system weakening inherent to the blending process due to growing displacement variances. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A low pressure system with supporting/amplified upper trough support in a recent series will progress southeastward across the Gulf of Alaska into late week and favor areas of enhanced maritime winds/waves and precipitation that should also linger inland across coastal areas of the southern to southeast tier of the state to produce some terrain focusing some moderate precipitation. A portion of the state will experience above seasonal average temperatures for the start of the month, particularly portions of the southern Interior where anomalies will be the highest. There is some risk there for enhanced downslope winds off the Alaska Range into drying soils to monitor for wildfire hazards. Additional upper troughing over the Arctic Ocean is expected to also settle down into the northern tier of the state then dig into the Bering Sea into next week. In this pattern, areas to the north of a surface front settling over the northern and central mainland in cold high pressure should keep temperatures below normal, especially across the unsettled North Slope and northern Interior. Guidance still shows spotty/unsettled light precipitation. Meanwhile, guidance continues to highlight development of a much deeper low pressure system to affect the Aleutians and Bering Sea with potentially high winds by midweek. This deepened low offers a potentially hazardous multi-day period with enhanced wind flow/waves and precipitation set to work downstream. Steady progression of this well organized/deep storm within the amplified pattern will lead to enhanced lead inflow to fuel precipitation into West and Southwest Alaska into Saturday. Ample Gulf of Alaska redevelopment should offer renewed maritime hazards along with moderate to heavy multi-day precipitation inland for the Alaska Peninsula/Kodiak Island and then SouthCentral to Southeast Alaska this weekend into early next week. Upstream, the later period settling of northern stream upper trough energy into the Bering Sea and subsequent progression of additional North Pacific system energies may lead to track and development of another Aleutians organized low pressure/frontal system to focus winds/waves and rainfall early next week. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html