Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 752 PM EDT Wed May 01 2024 Valid 12Z Sun May 05 2024 - 12Z Thu May 09 2024 ...Aleutians to Gulf of Alaska Storm Threat through Sunday... ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... The latest suite of guidance had an increase in model spread compared to yesterday; however, consensus maintains a deeper than average low near the Bering/Aleutian/western Gulf of Alaska that has multiple lobes of energy pinwheeling through the flow toward the Panhandle and across the Interior. Differing from yesterday's preferred blend, less emphasis was placed on the CMC since it and the UKMET were on the periphery of the cluster for a majority of the extended period. The WPC blend began with a multi-model approach that quickly transitioned to ECWMF/GFS and their ensemble means. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... An amplified trough on the order of 2 standard deviations deeper than average will track southeast across the Gulf of Alaska. Multiple lobes of energy will pinwheel through this trough which will send multiple fronts across the Aleutians and into the Gulf. The low pressure system expected for later in the period is shaping up to be stronger which offers a potentially hazardous multi-day period with enhanced wind flow/waves and precipitation set to work downstream. Steady progression of this well organized/deep storm within the amplified pattern will lead to enhanced lead inflow to fuel precipitation into West and Southwest Alaska into Saturday. Ample Gulf of Alaska redevelopment should offer renewed maritime hazards along with moderate to heavy multi-day precipitation inland for the Alaska Peninsula/Kodiak Island and then South-Central to Southeast Alaska this weekend into early next week. Strong, gusty winds along with precipitation will accompany each feature keeping much of the southern/eastern part of the state unsettled. Portions of the state will have above seasonal average temperatures for early May, particularly parts of the southern Interior where anomalies will be the highest. There is some risk there for enhanced downslope winds off the Alaska Range into drying soils to monitor for wildfire hazards. Additional upper troughing over the Arctic Ocean is expected to also settle down into the northern tier of the state then dig into the Bering Sea into next week. In this pattern, areas to the north of a surface front settling over the northern and central mainland in cold high pressure should keep temperatures below normal, especially across the unsettled North Slope and northern Interior. Campbell Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html