Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 752 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 12Z Wed May 15 2024 - 12Z Sun May 19 2024 ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... The 12Z model guidance suite is in good agreement on depicting an amplified trough over the Bering Sea and a downstream upper level ridge across mainland Alaska for the middle of the week. Greater differences exist across the Gulf region with a weakening trough/surface low, and the ECMWF is more defined with a trailing low entering the Gulf on Thursday. The GFS lifts the Bering Sea low farther north over the Arctic Ocean, and the CMC closer to the Bering Strait on Thursday. Going into Friday, the guidance still agrees with the placement of the upper ridge near the Alaska/Yukon border and a deep upper level trough near the West Coast of mainland Alaska, and southerly flow across much of the state. However, model spread becomes substantial across the Aleutians and western Bering Sea region going into next weekend, with low confidence on any given model scenario. The AIFS from the ECMWF supports a solution closer to the CMC/ECMWF compared to the weaker GFS by Saturday with the next low near Kodiak Island. Therefore, a more ensemble mean based approach was employed for the fronts/pressures by next Saturday and Sunday, while still keeping some of the CMC/ECMWF. ...General Overview and Weather/Hazards Highlights... Rain showers will likely be ongoing on Wednesday across portions of southeastern Alaska with onshore flow ahead of a weakening surface low approaching the coast. Meanwhile, showers are expected to increase in coverage across western Alaska through Thursday as the Bering Sea low lifts north towards the Arctic Ocean, along with some gusty southerly winds. After that, the next storm system is expected to arrive Friday across the Alaska Peninsula region and bring renewed prospects for rain and mountain snow to southern Alaska. This then tracks in the general direction of the southeast Panhandle region by next weekend. Temperatures are generally expected to range from the mid 50s to upper 60s for most Interior locations south of the Brooks Range, and 30s/40s north of the Brooks Range. Lows will generally be in the 30s to mid 40s. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html