Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 643 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 12Z Sat May 18 2024 - 12Z Wed May 22 2024 ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian model solutions seem decently clustered Saturday into early Sunday, but even a favored composite offers less than stellar continuity from yesterday. The latest solutions are overall less progressive. This trend may be reasonable given overall flow amplitude and newer data initialization in a pattern with stream flow interaction sensitivity. Later, prefer better cycle to cycle consistent 12 UTC NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means solutions for later Sunday through next Wednesday. Manually applied adjustments to forecast products tend to offset affects of system weakening inherent to a composite blending/means process. Overall, predictability is below normal, but may be in the process of improving. ...Overview and Weather/Hazards Highlights... The latest guidance cycle indicates now highlights the southeastward digging of an amplified Arctic stream upper trough and surface low/frontal system through the Bering Sea and Southwest Alaska/southern Interior to the northern Gulf of Alaska this weekend. This should spread a swath of enhanced winds and moderate rains across the broad region and into Southeast Alaska before exiting into Monday. The weather pattern remains unsettled next week over the Mainland as current upper ridging is eroded by a series of uncertain upper systems with height falls. Meanwhile to the south, also uncertain impulse energies and lighter weather focus will eject downstream across the Aleutians and the Gulf well in advance of a much more amplified upper trough and associated surface systems slated to work across the northern Pacific and Aleutians/Bering Sea to further monitor for growing predictability and hazardous weather focus as energies and rains/winds work toward the mainland in about a week. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html