Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 521 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 12Z Mon May 20 2024 - 12Z Fri May 24 2024 ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... Latest model solutions still show less than stellar variance and cycle to cycle continuity with embedded systems and interactions, but are generally in line with ensemble means with the larger scale pattern evolution. Accordingly, the WPC product suite was primarily derived from a composite of more compatible and consistent 12 UTC GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means along with manual adjustments to restore blended out system depths as consistent with individual predictability. WPC product continuity is well maintained in this fashion, albeit with a trend for slightly deeper offshore lows given broad upper support. ...Overview and Weather/Hazards Highlights... Showers and unsettled weather associated with closed upper low/troughing and surface system across the eastern Gulf of Alaska and the Southeast are now expected to linger into Monday. The supporting system is now slower/deeper than earlier expected in most guidance given upstream upper ridge development, but the signal is now more uniform in latest guidance. Expect a rather benign weather pattern overall for much of the Interior and North Slope next week as that mean upper ridge renews warmth and limits precipitation. Meanwhile, amplified upper troughs and associated surface lows/frontal systems with some enhanced winds/waves/rains remain slated to work from the northern Pacific through the Aleutians and the Bering Sea toward West/Southwest Alaska through early and mid next week. There will also be a growing opportunity for the subsequent transfering of system energies downstream into the Gulf of Alaska into mid-later next week to monitor for growing predictability and hazardous focus for the Alaskan southern tier and vicinity. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html