Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 755 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 12Z Thu May 23 2024 - 12Z Mon May 27 2024 ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... The 12Z model guidance suite has a good overall depiction of the synoptic scale pattern across the Alaska domain for the middle of next week, with mainly mesoscale differences noted with the incoming Bering Sea low and developing triple point low over the northern Gulf. Going into Friday, the GFS becomes a stronger solution with the Bering Sea low compared to the other guidance, but still close enough to be a part of the model blend. By next weekend, there is a general signal for a Gulf low developing among the deterministic guidance, and then lingering over the southern Gulf going into Monday, and another trough approaching the western Aleutians around this time. The WPC fronts/pressures forecast was primarily derived from a multi-deterministic model compromise for the end of the week, followed by gradually increasing percentages of the ECENS and GEFS going into next weekend, while still maintaining the GFS/ECMWF and a little of the CMC. ...Overview and Weather/Hazards Highlights... The developing triple point low over the northern Gulf midweek is expected to result in generally unsettled conditions with mainly nuisance level precipitation owing to moist onshore flow, but below hazardous level criteria for the southern coastal areas. The heaviest QPF is expected for the southern Kenai Peninsula to the Prince William Sound region through Wednesday, followed by a drier weather pattern through Friday before rain/snow chances increase once again for next weekend, depending on how the next Gulf low evolves. Elsewhere across the state, periods of light to occasionally moderate rain can be expected across western mainland Alaska as southerly flow advects moisture northward ahead of the Bering Sea low through midweek, although most of the North Slope should remain mostly dry and colder. Temperatures are forecast to be rather pleasant for most Interior locations, with highs generally in the 60s to perhaps 70 degrees for the lower elevations, and lows from the upper 30s to middle 40s. Readings closer to the southern coast will generally be in the upper 40s to middle 50s, and in the 30s for the Arctic Coast. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html