Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
508 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
Valid 12Z Sat May 25 2024 - 12Z Wed May 29 2024
...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...
For the synoptic setup, the 12Z guidance showed good agreement and
run to run consistency. The main features are a lingering closed
upper low that will move from the southern Mainland early on
during the period toward the Gulf of Alaska and southeast Alaska
by the end of the forecast period (middle of next week). There is
some uncertainty across the north where an embedded vort max
attempts to phase/absorb into the main cyclonic flow and swing
through western Alaska. The GFS in particular was stronger/deeper
with this feature but also stalled it along the North Slope.
Otherwise, by the middle of next week the guidance leans toward
bagginess/troughing over the Aleutians and western Mainland with
some upper ridging over northeast Alaska. The WPC model blend
started with a near equal blend of the available deterministic
guidance then trended heavily toward the ECENS/NAEFS by the middle
of next week.
...Overview and Weather/Hazards Highlights...
Precipitation amounts are expected to be modest through the
period, with the highest rain chances in western and southern
sections of the state with snow chances low for the North Slope.
Temperatures are forecast to be mild to warm for most Interior
locations, with highs generally in the 60s to perhaps 70 degrees
for the lower elevations, and lows from the upper 30s to middle
40s. Readings closer to the southern coast will generally be in
the upper 40s to middle 50s, and in the 30s for the Arctic Coast.
Taylor
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html