Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 546 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 12Z Tue May 28 2024 - 12Z Sat Jun 01 2024 ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... The latest model guidance shows reasonably good agreement across the region, given the typical model biases and uncertainty especially by the latter portions of the period. To start, the 500 mb height pattern is expected to feature a lingering closed low off Southeast Alaska while another compact closed low pivots/retrogrades across the northwest portions of the Mainland. That feature is expected to gradually absorb/phase with another shortwave trough/closed low undercutting it over the Aleutians and eventually forms a sprawling closed low over the western Mainland and Aleutians by the middle of the forecast period. Finally, by the end of the forecast period, the consensus among the available deterministic and ensemble guidance is for lower heights/troughing over the western Mainland and Aleutians while some ridging may develop/extend across the northern/northeast state. At the surface, areas of low pressure are likely to move through the southern regions with some potential for a deeper feature to develop toward the end of the forecast period across the western Aleutians. Overall, the details in the troughing (embedded vort maxes) and specifics about the low pressure track and timing will have to be resolved in later forecasts. With this in mind, the WPC blend favored the ECMWF and ECENS mean generally throughout the period though at the beginning of the period, a near equal blend of the ECMWF/UKMET/CMC/GFS was included given the reasonably good agreement. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... No significant weather hazards are forecast through the period with rain amounts generally remaining light to modest overall. Parts of the Panhandle, the Aleutians, and perhaps the southern Mainland may pick up more substantial amounts of precipitation given the favorable troughing and expected low tracks. River flooding is a possibility in a couple of spots as ice breaks up--see the Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center for details. Interior Alaska is likely to see the mildest temperatures across the state, with highs generally in the 60s to low 70s as the week progresses with a warming trend. The Brooks Range to North Slope should also see temperatures warm with time, from around to above the freezing mark for highs in the Arctic Coast communities. For the southern coast, temperatures at least for highs are forecast to stay below normal, with 40s and 50s for the most part. Tate/Taylor Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html