Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 533 PM EDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 12Z Fri Jun 07 2024 - 12Z Tue Jun 11 2024 ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... Today's 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF models are better clustered with multi-center ensembles than the 12 UTC Canadian/UKMET through medium range time scales. Forecast spread has decreased some from yesterday in a pattern with near to slightly above average predictability. Prefer a blend of the GFS/ECMWF and the GEFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensemble means with most weighting switching from the detailed models Friday/Saturday to the means at longer time frames amid growing variances. This solution still lifts a storm system northward into the Gulf of Alaska later this week, but has trended slightly eastward with the track. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A leading surface low/system will steadily lose influence into Thursday while rotating back across the northern Gulf of Alaska as northern stream upper low/trough energies dig down through the Bering Sea and eastern Aleutians. Expect a lingering moderate to heavy rain threat over southern areas of the state along with some gusty winds. Easterly wrapping flow and impulses offer additional precipitation chances inland across SouthCentral/Alaska Range and into the Interior to Southwest Alaska through late week, as upper ridging builds up into the Mainland. To the south, expect a main deepened storm system will lift from the central Pacific to the Gulf of Alaska late week into next weekend in conjunction with an upstream deepened system now over the western Pacific tracking to the south of the Aleutians and the Gulf of Alaska within a dynamic wave train. The combination of these systems and longevity offer multi-day high wind/wave threat for Gulf of Alaska maritime interests, with some enhanced wrapping rains working into the Aleutians and from Southeast Alaska through the coastal southern Alaskan tier into the weekend and lingering into early next week with continued storm rotation offshore. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html