Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 547 PM EDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 12Z Sat Jun 08 2024 - 12Z Wed Jun 12 2024 ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... Early on, the 12z guidance shows good agreement. From this weekend onward, the 12z ECMWF (and to some degree the 00z ECMWF ensemble mean) bring a cold low from eastern Asia southward into the north Pacific, which lures a cyclone from east of Japan northeast into the Aleutians. This is not seen on other deterministic guidance, doesn't fit the idea of broad ridging near the system's base, and barely showed up on the 00z ECMWF mean, so used lesser amounts of the 00z ECMWF from this weekend onward. An overall deterministic blend was used early, before switching out the 12z UKMET and 12z ECMWF for an even amount of the 00z ECMWF/12z NAEFS ensemble means. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... To the south, expect a deepening storm system will lift from the central Pacific to the Gulf of Alaska, while weakening on final approach, late week into next weekend in conjunction with an upstream deepened system now tracking by the AK Peninsula into the northeast Pacific. The combination of these systems should allow for gales well out at sea, with some enhanced wrapping rains working into the Aleutians and from Southeast Alaska through the coastal southern Alaskan tier into the weekend and lingering into early next week with continued storm rotation offshore, which is the depicted risk area in the hazards outlook. Moderate to occasionally heavy rain then shifts east around the increasingly barotropic low form south-central AK into the AK Panhandle by early next week. Interior shower chances exist due to daytime heating at the periphery of the nearly cold low. High temperatures range from the mid to upper 30s along the North Slope, to the 40s and 50s along the southern coast, to lower 70s inland. Subfreezing low temperatures appear confined to the North Slope and higher elevations in south-central and southeast AK between late this week and early next week. Roth Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html