Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
517 PM EDT Thu Jun 06 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Jun 10 2024 - 12Z Fri Jun 14 2024
...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...
There is good agreement in the 12z guidance today, though the 12z
ECMWF still has some detail issues that appear unrealistic. Early
on, a blend of the 12z Canadian/ECMWF/GFS/UKMET was used, before
inclusion up to 40% of the 12z NAEFS/00z ECMWF ensemble means was
employed to deal with the detail issues. Most grids used a 19z
NBM starting point, with the most deviation within the wind and
QPF grids, to increase magnitude.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
A deep cyclone near southwest AK and the AK Peninsula should allow
for gales out at sea, and possibly coastal locations more prone to
wind funneling, with rain generally expected in south-central AK
and increasingly across the interior for portions of next week.
Pressure gradient in the North Slope could bring coastal winds
towards gale force as well. Rainfall is heavy enough in and near
southern AK for a hazard to be placed in the outlook. Moderate to
occasionally heavy rain shifts into the AK Panhandle by early next
week, which could lead to a burst of moderate to heavy rains as an
occluded front and increased onshore flow in its wake occur.
Interior shower and thunderstorm chances exist due to daytime
heating at the periphery of the nearly cold low and shortwaves
retrograde around its northern periphery. High temperatures range
from the mid to upper 30s along the North Slope, to generally 50s
along the southern coast, and wavering mostly in the 70Fs inland.
Subfreezing low temperatures appear confined to the North Slope
and higher elevations in south-central and southeast AK early to
mid next week.
Roth
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html