Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
448 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Jun 17 2024 - 12Z Fri Jun 21 2024
...Overview, Guidance Evaluation, & Preferences...
An Omega Block slowly flattens over time, keeping the main cyclone
track south of the Aleutians/AK. A cold low takes up real estate
near northwest AK, which may interact with one or more cyclones
south of AK. This allows a front to cross portions of western and
northern AK. The guidance showed less dispersion today, and keeps
more ridging across southern AK than seen this time yesterday.
The pressures, winds, and QPF were a blend of the 12z
deterministic guidance with increasing amounts of the 00z ECMWF
and 12z NAEFS means with time. The remainder of the grids heavily
relied upon the 19z NBM.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
Winds to 30 knots/35 mph at times across the Aleutians, AK
Peninsula, and North Slope. Precipitation chances/amounts are
highest near topography, and should be convective in nature.
Precipitation amounts are expected to be modest. High
temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 30Fs in the
North Slope, 40Fs in the Aleutians, the 50Fs along the
south-central AK coast, 60Fs in the AK Panhandle, and the
70Fs/near 80F at times across the interior. Low temperatures are
expected to dip below freezing across the North Slope and the
higher terrain of south-central and southeast AK.
Roth
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html