Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 732 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 12Z Wed Jun 19 2024 - 12Z Sun Jun 23 2024 ...Overview and Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... Most of mainland Alaska will be situated under an upper level ridge axis extending from northwestern Canada going into the middle to end of the week. A compact upper level polar low near the Bering Strait on Wednesday is forecast to slowly drift westward and away from the state to close out the work week. Meanwhile, the main storm track across the North Pacific is expected to remain south of the state, although a surface low may approach the southeast Panhandle going into next weekend. Overall, the latest model guidance is in above average agreement across the Alaska domain going into next week, and even reasonable agreement for next weekend with the main synoptic scale features. The UKMET did stray from the consensus by Thursday with the polar low dropping farther south across the Bering, so this was weighted less than the CMC/ECMWF/GFS. The GFS becomes a more northerly solution by next Sunday with the shortwave/closed low south of the central Aleutians, but still within the realm of possibility. The ensemble means accounted for about 30-40% of the forecast blend going into next weekend. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Isolated to scattered showers and thundershowers can be expected most days across the Interior during the afternoons and early evenings, and some generally light onshore flow induced showers for the southern coastal areas. The greatest QPF is expected across the Alaska Range and portions of the Brooks Range, along with southeastern mainland Alaska. Depending on the evolution and track of a surface low over the eastern Gulf by next Sunday, a more organized round of rain could approach the southeast Panhandle, although it's not expected to be a major event. Areas north of the Brooks Range should generally remain dry with the Arctic high exerting its influence across the North Slope and Arctic Coast. In terms of temperatures, afternoon highs are expected to reach well into the 70s for many areas across the Interior, perhaps reaching 80 degrees for the Yukon Flats midweek, and also just north of the Alaska Range over the weekend. Overnight lows here should also be rather mild with readings bottoming out from the upper 40s to middle 50s. The Arctic Coast will likely remain chilly with onshore flow from the Arctic Ocean, with highs generally from the middle 30s to middle 40s. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html