Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 505 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 12Z Wed Jun 26 2024 - 12Z Sun Jun 30 2024 ...Overview and Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... A quasi-omega block sets up in and around AK early on, before a couple deep layer cyclones interact late in the period. Ridging persists across eastern and portions of interior AK. The 12z GFS became a tad north with the initial system in the Bering Sea, but this could be dealt with by blending in other guidance, deterministic and ensemble mean. Otherwise, the guidance shows good agreement. For the winds, pressures, 500 hPa heights, and QPF persisted with a starting point of the 12z runs of the ECWMF, GFS, CMC and UKMET before dropping the UKMET, while adding in the ECWMF and GEFS ensemble means. The remainder of the grids were more heavily based on the 19z NBM, with some inclusion of the 12z ECMWF and 12z ECMWF ensemble mean. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... This active pattern will keep the southwest portions of the state, including the Aleutians, rainy. Due to the depth of the low expected in the Bering Sea early on, 40-45 kt (45-50 mph) winds are expected to brush up against southwest AK next Tuesday and Wednesday before the cyclone weakens. The approaching system moving in from the west should bring 0.5-1" of QPF a day which fades with time as onshore flow weakens due to new cyclone development in the northeast Pacific. Thereafter, winds should generally peak in the 30 kt (35 mph) range across the Arctic Coast and coastal areas. The terrain in south-central AK is expected to have the best chance of showers and thunderstorms. There is the possibility of dry lightning strikes during the afternoons and evenings may increase the risk for fire weather concerns given the dry fuels across the region. Ridging across the Mainland will maintain warm to hot temperatures. Afternoon maximums will start in the 80-90F range across the Interior mid next week before a slow decline thereafter. Highs in the 60s and 70s are expected across lower elevations of south-central AK, with 50s and 60s in most coastal areas, roughly near 50F across the North Slope, and mid to upper 40s in the Aleutians. The North Slope will be cool overnight with lows in the 30s, while higher elevations in the terrain across south-central and southeast AK should fall below freezing overnight. Roth/Campbell Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html