Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 509 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 12Z Thu Jun 27 2024 - 12Z Mon Jul 01 2024 ...Overview and Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The flow around AK morphs back and forth between a Rex and Omega Block as deep layer lows occasionally move under its southern side. Ridging persists across much of mainland AK. The 12z UKMET became a northward outlier with the system initially in the Bering Sea, so used only a small percentage of its solution. The 12z runs of the ECMWF, Canadian, and GFS fit in reasonably well with the 12z NAEFS and 00z ECMWF ensemble means. For the winds, pressures, 500 hPa heights, and QPF persisted with a starting point of primarily the 12z runs of the ECWMF, GFS, and Canadian models before adding in the ECWMF and GEFS ensemble means. The remainder of the grids were more heavily based on the 19z NBM, with some inclusion of the 12z ECMWF and 12z ECMWF ensemble mean. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... This pattern will favor the Aleutians and AK Peninsula to be rainy, as the Bering Sea cyclone lifts north and a new cyclone and a new occluded cyclone is escorted under its base late in the week. Due to the depth of the low expected in the Bering Sea early on, up to 40 kt (45 mph) winds are expected to brush up against westernmost AK next Wednesday and Thursday as the cyclone weakens. The pair of systems allow for modest rainfall in their vicinity. Thereafter, winds should generally peak in the 30 kt (35 mph) range across the Arctic Coast and coastal areas. The terrain in south-central and northern AK are expected to have the best chance of showers and thunderstorms. There is the possibility of dry lightning strikes during the afternoons and evenings which would increase the risk for fire weather concerns given the dry fuels across the region. Ridging across the Mainland will maintain warm to hot temperatures. Afternoon maximums should lie the 80-90F range for the most part across the Interior. Highs mostly in the 60s and 70s are expected across lower elevations of south-central AK, with mainly 50s and 60s in most coastal areas, 50s and 40s across the North Slope, and mid to upper 40s in the Aleutians. The North Slope will be cool overnight with lows in the 30s, while higher elevations in the terrain across south-central and southeast AK should fall below freezing overnight. Roth Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html