Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 744 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 12Z Wed Jul 03 2024 - 12Z Sun Jul 07 2024 ...Overview and Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The blocky pattern overall is handled fairly well through the extend period. The CMC initially trended faster than the rest of the cluster with the upper low crossing the Gulf of Alaska toward the Southeast Panhandle however the ECWMF caught up while the GFS lagged about half a day behind during the mid and later periods. In general, a combination of the UKMET,CMC, GFS and ECWMF made a good starting point for this WPC forecast, with the heaviest weighting on the ECWMF. The UKMET was dropped after after Day 5 and the use of the EC ensemble means and GEFS means were added for the mid and later periods. This slight change up from the past few forecasts still provided a solution close to continuity. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Much of the Aleutians and the Southeast will have mostly light or no precipitation through much of the extended period. Chances for rain/thunderstorms will steadily increase in coverage across the western/northwest part of the state before spreading across the Interior later in the week and through the upcoming weekend. An increase in wind speeds and gusts across northern parts of the state could aggravate the spread of the numerous wildfires that are scattered across the Interior. The increase in rain potential however will help reduce and contain the wildfires while providing beneficial moisture to the region. Ridging across mainland Alaska will maintain warm to hot temperatures. Daily highs are expected to rise into the 80 to 90F range for the most part across the eastern interior sections with mostly 60s and 70s expected across lower elevations of south-central Alaska, 50s and 60s in most coastal areas, 50s and 40s across the North Slope, and mid to upper 40s in the Aleutians. Higher elevations in the terrain across south-central and southeast Alaska should fall below freezing overnight. The North Slope will cool down closer to normal temperatures by Sunday as a surface high pressure system gradually sliding from west to east off the northern coastline of Alaska funnels colder air into the area from the Arctic Ocean. Campbell Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html