Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 639 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 12Z Sun Jul 07 2024 - 12Z Thu Jul 11 2024 ...Overview and Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... Guidance solutions are well clustered valid Sunday-Tuesday in a pattern with above average predictability. Prefer a composite of the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian for detail. Gradually switched preference to a model and ensemble blend through longer time frames, increasing emphasis to the more compatible ensemble means over time amid growing forecast spread and uncertainty. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A wavy and weakening surface front tracking west to east and then settling across Mainland Alaska should provide focus for some moderate to locally heavier precipitation, with higher totals likely associated with higher terrain given favorable upper support this weekend into early next week. Much of Alaska remains generally wet and unsettled overall the entire period, which should help bring some relief to the spreading wildfires across the state currently. By this weekend, rain and storms will increase in coverage and intensity from the Alaska Peninsula to Southern Coast as Gulf moisture gets pulled northward ahead of the northern stream upper troughing/system progression over the mainland. Given overall upper troughing over the state into next week, daytime highs across nearly all of Mainland Alaska will be well below normal, with the greatest anomalies across western and northern parts of the state. Temperatures may begin to moderate again by mid next week. By then there is also a growing guidance signal to lift an organized low pressure/frontal system up across the Gulf of Alaska. This slow/evolving track would provide protracted unsettled maritimes conditions over the Gulf and act to increasingly through next week support potential for some moderate to heavy rainfall from southern Alaska through the Southeast. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html