Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 717 PM EDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 12Z Wed Jul 10 2024 - 12Z Sun Jul 14 2024 ...Overview and Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... Model forecast spread and uncertainty with embedded systems remains problematic through medium range time scales despite a still reasonably similar larger scale pattern evolution. Note: The 12 UTC ECMWF was unavailable. Continuity is best maintained with cycle to cycle consistent and compatible GEFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensemble means along with WPC manually applied edits to better depict offshore surface low pressure systems that have favorable mean upper support. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A slow moving surface front across Mainland Alaska should provide some focus for local precipitation next week, with higher totals likely associated with higher terrain given an overall pattern with favorable upper support. Much of Alaska remains generally wet and unsettled, which should help bring some relief to wildfire activity. Also given overall upper troughing over the state into next week, daytime highs across nearly all of Mainland Alaska will be well below normal, with the greatest anomalies across western and northern parts of the state. Temperatures may begin to moderate into later next week. There is also still some threat to lift organized low pressure/frontal systems up across the Gulf of Alaska into next midweek. This track would support unsettled maritime conditions over the Gulf and offers moderate rainfall from eastern southern Alaska through the Southeast. Later period system activity guidance support is less than uniform in the models, but the preferred ensemble means do still show an amplified and slowly evolving larger scale pattern with a major closed upper low/trough centered over the Bering Sea and an emerging upper trough over the Gulf of Alaska as ample energy feeds downstream to fuel cyclogenesis and frontogenesis. In this scenario, heights rise over-top into the eastern Mainland. While specifics are currently lacking in certainty, this pattern favors a continued wet and system active period from West/Southwest Alaska through the southern to Southeast Alaskan tier mid-later next week into next weekend as unsettling systems will be prone to develop and evolve/linger over the eastern Bering and downstream into the Gulf of Alaska to monitor over the coming days for better clarity. WPC Alaskan medium range surface progs (linked below) show a well organized mean surface low pressure/frontal system focus gradually shifting in emphasis from the Bering Sea to the Gulf of Alaska that portends a multi-day period of moderate rainfall that adds up over the course of this forecast period. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html