Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 458 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Valid 12Z Tue Jul 16 2024 - 12Z Sat Jul 20 2024 ...Wet pattern the Alaska Panhandle next week... ...Overview and Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The guidance agrees that a strengthening polar vortex along with a deep layer cyclone moving from eastern Asia into the Bering Sea will escort a cold low from southwest AK into the Gulf of AK and the adjacent northeast Pacific. The guidance shows broad agreement on these ideas. Details remain an issue, so have relied upon a deterministic blend of the 12z runs of the ECMWF, UKMET, Canadian, and GFS early on before using increasing amounts of the 12z NAEFS/00z ECMWF ensemble mean solutions thereafter. For the pressures/fronts, this maintained reasonable continuity. The QPF is more weighted towards a non-ECMWF deterministic blend, while many of the weather grids used the 19z NBM as a starting point. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... The southern portions of Alaska will be unsettled, with the wettest conditions expected across the AK Panhandle next week. Another cyclone on its heels should keep the Aleutians unsettled with a distinct chance of gale force winds. Cumulative heavy rain, 2-4" areal average amounts and local amounts of 6" are possible in the Panhandle. The heavy rain threat will generally decrease by midweek as the cyclone weakens but the rain can be expected to linger through late week with a period of enhanced rainfall possible in the Panhandle with the arrival of a low pressure wave, which the guidance isn't especially agreeable on, timing-wise. The remainder of the state will remain unsettled with scattered showers and perhaps some embedded thunderstorms. High temperatures will be more evenly distributed, with 60s and 70s in the central Valley, 40s and 50s on the North Slope, and 50s and 60s elsewhere. Subfreezing lows should be constrained to the higher terrain of the Brooks Range and the various ranges across south-central and southeast Alaska. Roth/Kong Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html