Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 802 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Valid 12Z Mon Jul 22 2024 - 12Z Fri Jul 26 2024 ...Somewhat wet pattern for the Aleutians and portions of the Southeast Coast into the Panhandle... ...Overview... A surface low pressure tracking north into the Gulf weakens as it approaches the Panhandle region. This may spread some moisture into at least the Panhandle, but models have backed off on any sort of heavy rain threat. An upper ridge building eastward over the mainland will promote a warmer trend for temperatures over most areas aside from the Southcentral coast and Panhandle leading to some of the hottest temperatures so far this season for several locations. Along the southern periphery of progressive high latitude flow, a mean frontal boundary may set up near the northern coast early next week. Finally, a deep-layer low will make gradual progress from the northwestern Pacific through the western Aleutians and into the central Bering Sea, spreading a broad area of rain across the region and perhaps eventually into the southwestern mainland. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The latest guidance continue to have a good handle on the synoptic pattern, favoring deeper closed lows over the Bering and eastern Gulf of Alaska. As noted the past few runs, the details on the exact placement have varied but within the normal envelope of spread for the longer range period. Consensus favors a somewhat slower eastward progression of both the Gulf and Bering lows. Followed continuity by starting with equal weighting of the GFS/ECWMF/CMC/UKMET through Tuesday morning; beyond that, dropped the UKMET and added the GEFS and EC ensemble means gradually to help mitigate the smaller scale differences while also keeping operational input to add detail where feasible. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Most of the guidance depicts a surface low pressure system lifting towards the Southern Coast and Panhandle region that will usher in lighter QPF amounts each day. A northwestern Pacific low drifting into the Aleutians and Bering Sea along with associated fronts will spread areas of rainfall gradually eastward across the region during the period. The leading edge of this moisture may reach into the southwestern mainland. This system (along with the northeastern Pacific low) may produce some brisk winds but with speeds likely staying well below hazardous criteria. Expect increasing coverage of above normal readings by the weekend as an upper ridge builds over the mainland, but the Panhandle and parts of Southcentral may see greater persistence of below normal highs. Parts of the Mainland/Interior will have some of the hottest temperatures of the season so far during this period, rising into the upper 80s to lower 90s. The hot temperatures are likely to stick around for at least 3-4 days. Southwestern areas may also trend back below normal with the arrival of some clouds/rainfall. Negative anomalies for min temperatures should be more moderate early next week. Campbell Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html