Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 753 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 12Z Fri Aug 2 2024 - 12Z Tue Aug 6 2024 ...General Overview... An upper trough centered over the northern half of the state late this week is forecast to lift out, and an amplified upper level ridge is likely to build over the eastern 2/3rds of the state going into Sunday and the beginning of next week. This will be in response to a deep upper level trough/closed low developing over the western Bering Sea. The result will be a warming trend across most of the state throughout this forecast period. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The 12Z model guidance suite has good overall agreement on the synoptic scale pattern for the end of the week across the Alaska mainland, and some minor timing and placement differences with the upper trough and weak surface low over the Gulf. Looking ahead to the weekend, the CMC begins to stray from the model consensus across multiple areas, and it is also stronger and farther east with the trough axis across the Bering/Aleutians. There was better agreement among the GFS/ECMWF and their ensemble means, and the UKMET was also reasonably close through the weekend. There has definitely been a trend for a stronger upper ridge to develop across the mainland compared to earlier model runs. The forecast was primarily based on a GFS/ECMWF/UKMET consensus through Saturday, and then gradually transitioning to about 40-50% ensemble means by early next week. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A noteworthy warming trend is expected in terms of temperatures going into next weekend and into Monday/Tuesday as the pattern over the state becomes more amplified and southwesterly flow aloft ushers in a warmer air mass by Sunday into Monday. Highs are expected to reach into the 60s for most inland areas through Saturday, and then well into the middle to upper 70s across most of the Interior late in the forecast period, perhaps close to 80 degrees for some of the normally warmer locations. Areas of moderate to locally heavy rainfall can be expected for western portions of the Brooks Range late in the week. Terrain enhanced showers can also be expected for the southern coastal areas, with the heaviest rain likely for the south facing terrain of the Alaska Peninsula. Depending on the evolution and proximity of the incoming Bering Sea low pressure system, breezy to windy conditions could develop for the western mainland coastal areas. There may also be enhanced rainfall ahead of this Bering low given some tropical moisture potentially be advected northward. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html