Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 753 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 12Z Mon Sep 2 2024 - 12Z Fri Sep 6 2024 ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... Models and ensembles show an energetic and progressive flow in a stormy pattern with average levels of model uncertainty into early next week. A general blend of best clustered guidance from the 12Z model guidance suite works well as a starting point while offering some details with the individual shortwaves. There was a gradual increase to about 60% ensemble means by next Friday as model spread increases. However, the guidance signal for another possible impactful Gulf of Alaska storm in about a week has increased. Uncertainties remain, but the pattern is quite favorable. Accordingly, WPC applied manual edits to ensure sufficient low depth in WPC progs given signal and upper trough support aloft. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... An upper level trough with embedded closed low is forecast to reside over the Gulf region through midweek, and a potential second low tracking northward into the Gulf by later in the week. This will tend to keep conditions unsettled for the Southeast Panhandle where moist onshore flow oriented orthogonal to the terrain will enhance rainfall, perhaps a few inches of rain for southern portions of the Panhandle through next Friday. A potentially stronger storm crossing the Bering Sea by midweek will likely affect portions of western mainland Alaska by Wednesday and lasting through Thursday. If the stronger model solutions come to pass, periods of heavy rain and strong winds would likely cause some problems for this region, and this would include the potential for coastal flooding for the Seward Peninsula and extending south to the Alaska Peninsula. However, there remains considerable uncertainty in how this event will evolve, so future adjustments will likely be necessary. In terms of temperatures, no major temperature anomalies are currently expected. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html