Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 752 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2024 Valid 12Z Fri Sep 6 2024 - 12Z Tue Sep 10 2024 ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The 12Z model guidance suite features good overall synoptic scale agreement across the Alaska domain for the end of the work week, with the main exception across the Aleutians and the Bering Sea region. There are some noticeable timing differences with both the 12Z CMC and UKMET, which delay the arrival of the next Bering Sea low and thus keep the surface high pressure ridge to the west of the GFS/ECMWF and their ensemble means. The AI guidance from the ECMWF favors something closer to the GFS/ECMWF solutions for the first half of the forecast period, so the forecast was hedged more in this direction for fronts/pressures. The lingering Gulf low is still depicted reasonably well going into Saturday, but greater model differences appear across the Arctic going into early next week, and also across the Alaska Peninsula and Bering Sea region. The ensemble means accounted for about 60% of the overall forecast for fronts/pressures going into next Tuesday. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A weakening low pressure system near Kodiak Island Friday slowly drifts east across the northern Gulf and eventually dissipates, and this will keep conditions quite rainy from South-Central AK into northwestern portions of the Alaska Panhandle as the mid-to upper-level trough remains in place through about Saturday. A total of 3-6 inches of QPF is likely across the favored terrain, which is not especially unusual for early autumn. Gale force winds are expected for the coastal and offshore waters, which could lead to higher tides. The incoming low pressure system across the Bering by Sunday may also result in periods of rain for western mainland Alaska, accompanied by some stronger winds near the coast. Northern stream shortwaves move across northern Alaska, keeping the arctic drape near the Brooks Range and generally cooler conditions across the North Slope. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html