Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 756 PM EDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 12Z Tue Oct 08 2024 - 12Z Sat Oct 12 2024 ***Stormy weather on the horizon for late in the week as another strong low likely develops over the Gulf of Alaska*** ...Overview and Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The powerful extra-tropical low associated with former typhoon Jebi will likely be over the northern Gulf of Alaska by the beginning of the forecast period Tuesday, after hammering the Aleutians and western portions of the mainland over the upcoming weekend. It is forecast to weaken by Tuesday with central pressure rising to about 990 mb, and then weakening further going into the middle of the week. This will then be followed by a break in the bad weather for Wednesday into Thursday, but there will likely be additional trouble on the distant horizon as another potentially strong storm system develops south of the Aleutians by the end of next week, and brings another round of impactful rain and wind to southern Alaska. The 12Z model guidance suite has a decent overall depiction across the Alaska domain to begin the work week. The CMC strays from the consensus for the middle of the week with an a stronger lead surface low ahead of the major low expected later in the week, and also differs in the eventual evolution of the Gulf low by Friday, and farther to the north compared to the ECMWF/GFS solutions. Ensemble means were gradually increased to about 40-50% by the Friday/Saturday time period. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Gale force winds and rough seas are expected over the open waters of the Gulf of Alaska to begin the week, with strong winds likely across the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island, with gap wind enhancement. Heavy rainfall (and snow in the higher terrain) is expected from the Alaska Peninsula all the way to the southeast Panhandle, although the intensity should be waning going into Tuesday as the storm system weakens. The next storm developing over the Gulf late in the period will likely bring the return of heavy precipitation for Friday and into Saturday for some of those same areas, with an atmospheric river event likely accompanying it and enhancing precipitation totals. In terms of temperatures, cooler than normal highs are likely over southern parts of Alaska owing to increased cloud cover and precipitation, and warmer than normal temperatures are likely for the northern two-thirds of the mainland for the upcoming week. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html