Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 616 PM EDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 12Z Thu Oct 10 2024 - 12Z Mon Oct 14 2024 ...Strong low into the Gulf to bring strong winds, heavy rain, and maritime threats next weekend... ...Overview and Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... A strong surface low tracking from the Bering Sea on Thursday, across the Alaska Peninsula, and into the Gulf next weekend will be the main feature of interest across the Alaska region during the medium range period. The latest 12z guidance shows very good agreement on this system, which could have surface pressures into the 960s. There are some detail differences in individual energy/shortwaves rounding the parent upper low, but otherwise guidance shows this system should weaken and meander in the Gulf into early next week as a strong upper ridge builds over western Canada. Another system looks to slide south of the western to central Aleutians late in the period, but the guidance shows a lot of uncertainty in the timing of this. Given the sufficient agreement in the big Gulf low, the Days 4-6 WPC forecast used a blend of the deterministic guidance. Leaned heavily towards the means Day 7 and 8 given increasing uncertainties and variability in the guidance. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... The storm moving into the Gulf on Friday will bring a threat for heavy precipitation progressing east to west from the mountainous terrain of the eastern Aleutians/AK Peninsula to the Southern Coast, and eventually the Panhandle. An atmospheric river event is likely with precipitation totals of several inches of QPF, and snow in the higher terrain. Unsettled wet weather will linger for a few days across the Panhandle region as the low settles into the Gulf. Gusty to strong winds will also be a threat across the entire region, with storm force winds possible over the water, and strong gap winds the favorable locations. Significant waves will present a major threat for maritime interests as well. Some lighter precipitation (snow) may reach into interior Alaska. In terms of temperatures, readings should be slightly above normal for early-mid October across most of the central and eastern Interior, with highs in the 30s to lower 40s, and slightly below normal for the southern coastal areas and the western mainland. Most locations along and north of the Brooks Range should remain below freezing for highs. Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html