Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 519 PM EDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 12Z Fri Oct 11 2024 - 12Z Tue Oct 15 2024 ...Strong low into the Gulf to bring strong winds, heavy rain, and maritime threats next weekend... ...Overview and Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... A strong surface low tracking from the Bering Sea on Thursday, across the Alaska Peninsula, and into the Gulf next weekend will be the main feature of interest across the Alaska region during the medium range period. The latest 12z guidance shows very good agreement on this system, which is forecast to have surface pressures into the 950s, though some guidance suggests even deeper. Another system looks to slide south of the western to central Aleutians late in the period, but the GFS/ECMWF show really good agreement here and the Canadian didn't lag too much. For the winds, pressures, fronts, and QPF, an even blend of the 12z GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian were used initially, before incorporating some of the 12z NAEFS mean and 00z ECMWF ensemble mean later on to account for uncertainty. The remainder of the grids were more 19z NBM based. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... The storm moving into the Gulf on Friday will bring a threat for heavy precipitation progressing east to west from the mountainous terrain of the eastern Aleutians/AK Peninsula to the Southern Coast, and eventually the Panhandle. An atmospheric river event is likely with precipitation totals of several inches of QPF, and snow in the higher terrain. Unsettled wet weather will linger for a few days across the Panhandle region as the low settles into the Gulf. Gusty and strong winds will also be a threat across the entire region, with storm to hurricane force winds possible over the water, and strong gap winds within the usual favorable locations. Significant waves will present a major threat for maritime interests as well. Some lighter precipitation (snow) may reach into interior Alaska. In terms of temperatures, readings should be slightly above normal for early-mid October across most of the central and eastern Interior, with highs in the 30s to lower 40s, and slightly below normal for the southern coastal areas and the western mainland. Most locations along and north of the Brooks Range should remain below freezing for highs. Roth/Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html