Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 707 PM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 12Z Tue Oct 15 2024 - 12Z Sat Oct 19 2024 ...Overview and Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The low pressure system over the northern Gulf of Alaska is expected to steadily weaken going into the middle of the week. A surface high will be stretched across the central Aleutians and into the Bering Sea region, although this will give way to more unsettled conditions across the Aleutians as a second but weaker low pressure system moves in from the west and likely crosses just south of the Aleutians. Low pressure will likely linger over the northern Gulf going into the end of the week, and a surface high over the Interior. The 12Z model guidance is in good overall agreement across the Alaska domain for Tuesday, and a general deterministic model compromise serves as a good starting point in the forecast process. Wednesday also features good agreement, with the one exception across the southern Gulf where the 12Z ECMWF and UKMET spin up a stronger surface low off the British Columbia Coast, but the ECMWF is not as strong as yesterday with that low. Looking ahead to the second half of the week, the CMC remains slower with the arrival of the next low pressure system crossing south of the Aleutians. The ensemble means were gradually increased to about 40-50% towards the end of the week and next Saturday. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... The strong low pressure system that will be over the Gulf this weekend will be much weaker by Tuesday, with breezy conditions in northerly flow across the Alaska Peninsula, and onshore flow across the southeast Panhandle region. This will fuel additional rounds of mainly light rainfall across the region, but nothing expected to reach hazards level criteria. One to two inches of additional rain is possible through midweek for the southeast Panhandle, and moderate to heavy snow for the coastal mountain ranges. Lingering light snow is likely across the Brooks Range and the eastern North Slope after heavier snow over the weekend. Temperatures will be trending colder across most of the state as a cold front crosses and brings more of an arctic air mass to the region, with highs likely near or below freezing for most inland areas by the end of the week, and mid 30s to mid 40s near the southern coast. Some valley locations near the Brooks Range could have overnight lows near zero by Thursday and Friday. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html