Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 755 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Valid 12Z Wed Oct 16 2024 - 12Z Sun Oct 20 2024 ...Overview and Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The low pressure system over the northern Gulf of Alaska early in the week is expected to dissipate going into the middle of the week. A surface high will be stretched across the central Aleutians and into the Bering Sea region, and extending inland across the Interior. A low pressure system crosses just south of the Aleutians through Thursday and reaches the southern Gulf by Friday, but most of the bad weather should remain south of the coast. By late in the period next Sunday, another low may start approaching the western Bering Sea region. The 12Z model guidance is in good overall agreement across the Alaska domain for Wednesday, and a general deterministic model compromise serves as a good starting point in the forecast process. Looking ahead to the end of the week, the guidance agrees well over the mainland, but modest differences with the low pressure system over the Gulf. Much greater differences emerge by next Sunday with the potential storm approaching the western Bering, and also across the North Pacific with below average forecast confidence. The ensemble means were gradually increased to about 50% by next weekend. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A quieter weather pattern is expected across most of the state after a busy short term forecast period. Precipitation should abate quite a bit across southern Alaska, with some lingering showers for the southeast panhandle region for the second half of the week as the surface low steadily decays. Farther to the north across the Brooks Range and up to the Arctic Coast, periods of snow are likely as an arctic shortwave and surface trough passes through the region, with several inches of accumulation likely. Elsewhere, mainly dry conditions can be expected with just a few isolated rain/snow showers. Temperatures will be trending colder across most of the state as a cold front crosses and brings more of an arctic air mass to the region, with highs likely near or below freezing for most inland areas by the end of the week, and mid 30s to mid 40s near the southern coast. Some valley locations near the Brooks Range could have overnight lows near zero by Thursday and Friday. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html