Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 654 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 Valid 12Z Wed Nov 13 2024 - 12Z Sun Nov 17 2024 ***Bering Sea storm could gusty winds and increased snow to Southwest Alaska later next week*** ...Overview... A generally cold and mainly dry weather pattern can be expected for most of the Interior and to the Arctic Coast as a large scale synoptic trough will likely be in place across the state. The main storm track will generally be near the Aleutians and southern Bering Sea, and also the northern Gulf by later in the forecast period. Coastal rain and mountain snow is looking more likely toward the end of next week and into next weekend with onshore flow associated with the incoming Gulf low pressure system late in the period. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... Models continue to show good agreement through the middle of next week, but model spread increases to end the week and into next weekend with plenty of differences with placement of lows crossing the Bering and North Pacific. The most significant uncertainty continues to surround the strong Bering Sea storm system and it's evolution over Alaska late next week, and potential triple point low evolution over the Gulf. Deterministic model guidance from the GFS/ECMWF/CMC/UKMET made up a majority of the WPC forecast blend Wednesday when there is still good agreement, then ensemble means from the GEFS and ECENS accounted for up to half of the forecast blend through the weekend. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... The low passing south of the state early/mid next week should be far enough south that impacts to Alaska will be minimal. There may only be some gusty winds and light precipitation in the far southern portions of Southeast Alaska. After this system passes, the focus will shift to the Bering Sea as another storm system approaches. Hazardous weather potential will focus over portions of Southwest/Western Alaska on Thursday, especially in areas susceptible to coastal impacts, depending on how strong the system becomes. The system will push east on Friday and Saturday, and winds should decrease as the system moves farther inland. Models have been showing a triple point low forming and focusing moisture over South-central and Southeast Alaska, which could result in some heavier precipitation in these regions, especially along the coastal terrain. Arctic high pressure north of the state will usher in winter-like temperatures next week, with highs struggling to get above zero for many areas across the northern and eastern Interior, and extending north across the Brooks Range. Temperatures may start to moderate back towards normal later next week as a more moist Pacific air mass moves into the region. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html