Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
456 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 22 2024 - 12Z Tue Nov 26 2024
...Wet pattern for western AK and the Aleutians with enhanced gap
winds for a cooled Southeast Alaska...
...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...
Guidance is fairly well clustered with the blocking ridge parked
near and south of AK aloft, bolstering forecast confidence in a
composite 12z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian model blend. Detail issues
remain with low pressure system(s) moving through the Bering Sea
late in the period. Since the various deterministic solutions are
within the NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble spread, increased use of the 12z
NAEFS and 00z ECMWF ensemble means mid to late period. Most of
the grids are 19z NBM weighted, as usual.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
Some snow is seen across interior Alaska early on before fading.
Strong upper level ridging from the Aleutians to the Interior and
storm track into the Bering offers a moderated temperature pattern
through next weekend into early next week. As is typical, the
coldest readings will be on the North Slope and eastern interior.
With systems moving through the Aleutians and the Bering Sea
around the west side of the ridge, western AK and in particular
the Aleutians and AK Peninsula should be the wettest late this
week through early next week.
Roth
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html