Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 425 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 12Z Wed Dec 18 2024 - 12Z Sun Dec 22 2024 ...Deep low to produce a high wind threat near the Bering Strait and Gulf of Alaska from next Thursday through next weekend... ...Warm up for Alaska... ...Overview/Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The guidance is in broad agreement that a cyclone spanning much of the Pacific late Monday into Tuesday will try to move eastward as it lies in an unstable position aloft over a longwave ridge in the mid-Pacific. Ultimately, its eastward progress will be halted by a new cyclone moving into its southwest to southerly periphery, which tries to yank it back west due to binary interaction, leading to stalling while over the Aleutians. The guidance is excellent agreement on this very large cyclone, but differs on the spokes moving around its east side through the northeast Pacific and possibly the Bering Sea on Thursday. To deal with the uncertainly, used a blend of the 12z runs of the UKMET, GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF before increasing the percentage of the 12z NAEFS and 00z ECMWF ensemble means for the pressures, fronts, winds, 500 hPa heights, and QPF. The remainder of the grids will be 19z NBM heavy, as per usual. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... The slow east progression of the low near the Aleutians should increase the strength of the roughly southeast flow from the northeast Pacific into southern AK, causing increasingly cloudy skies statewide and a warm up, which will be most pronounced in the southern half of the state and slowest across northern and eastern portions of AK. Winds near storm force are possible across the Gulf of AK and near the Bering Strait from next Thursday onward. Daily precipitation near south-central AK should be the usual 1-2" per day in preferred terrain, though a spike in amounts appears to be in the cards late next week. Despite the forecasted spike, amounts were dropped somewhat from continuity as a whole. Roth Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: The WPC Hazards Outline depicts these threats. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html