Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 630 PM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 12Z Tue Dec 31 2024 - 12Z Sat Jan 04 2025 ...Overview with Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... Models and ensemble means agree well that the medium-range forecast period for the Alaskan domain will feature a tilted omega blocking pattern gradually lifting north across mainland Alaska and evolve into a closed high over the Arctic Ocean heading into the first few days of the year 2025. Much of mainland Alaska will then be under an upper-level col while the main cyclone tracks will remain well south of the Gulf of Alaska, coupled with the tendency for the individual cyclones to weaken as they head toward the Gulf. A deeper cyclone will appear to slide south of the Aleutians through the latter half of next week, likely broadening and strengthening the northeasterly flow across the Bering Sea and through the Aleutians. The WPC forecast was based on a consensus blend of the 12Z GFS/GEFS, 12Z ECMWF and 00Z/12Z EC mean, and the 12Z CMC/CMC mean. This solution maintained good continuity with the previous WPC forecast package. The 06Z GFS did not appear to agree with the rest of the guidance regarding the individual cyclone tracks and thus was not included in the blend. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... No hazardous weather is anticipated for the Alaskan domain through the medium-range forecast period. Much of mainland Alaska will be under a dry and persistent east to northeasterly flow near the surface with only modest amounts of precipitation along the southern coastlines including the Panhandle and the Aleutians. A stronger low pressure system edging closer toward the Gulf of Alaska could provide a period of gustier winds to the southeastern coastal sections of the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island on Tuesday before sliding off to the east and weakens. Some increase in precipitation chances and amounts can be expected for the western and central Aleutians by the latter half of next week when a deeper cyclone is predicted to slide to the south. After recovering from temperatures well below normal levels early in the week across the North Slope, a persistent east to northeasterly flow being fed by a strengthening surface high pressure system centered over the Arctic Ocean (with central pressure possibly up to 1050 mb) late next week will keep temperatures below normal for much of mainland Alaska. Above normal temperatures will be confined farther south across the Alaska Peninsula, all of the Aleutians, and along the southern coastlines including the Alaska Panhandle. Kong Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html