Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 502 PM EST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 12Z Fri Feb 07 2025 - 12Z Tue Feb 11 2025 ...Very Deep Aleutians Storms with High Wind Threats by Superbowl Sunday... ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... Upper ridging will strongly rebound over the Mainland by this weekend and persist well into next week as a series of weather focusing systems track around the periphery and eventually carve out quite amplified/closed upper troughs just west/southwest of the state and also downstream over western Canada. Prefer a composite of best clustered 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET guidance valid for Friday into Superbowl Sunday. The 12 UTC Canadian model again seems to work less predictable shortwave energy too much into the blocking ridge. Big ridges tend to linger. The composite blend offers good system detail as consistent with a pattern with above normal predictability. This period includes the onset of what looks to become quite a favorable period for very deep and windy low pressure system impacts into the Aleutians and vicinity as the signal for closed low upper energies increasingly consolidates. Switched guidance preference to the GEFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensemble means at longer time frames amid slowly growing forecast spread and uncertainty. WPC product continuity is well maintained in this manner, albeit with deeper low trends. Resultant low pressure systems depicted on the WPC surface progs were manually deepened a bit more than the means given ample upper support and as the full array of models and individual ensemble members present quite a few deeper storm threat solutions to monitor in the coming days as system specifics come more in to focus. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Quite amplified upper flow will become re-established by the weekend for Alaska and vicinity as upper ridging strongly rebuilds over the Gulf of Alaska and the Mainland as sandwiched by amplified upper troughs. A series of weather focusing shortwaves and accompanying surface lows/systems will track around the periphery of the ridge and lift across the Aleutians to the Bering Sea/Strait and round the Arctic Ocean/North Slope before digging sharply through/east of a cooling eastern Interior/SouthCentral and Southeast Alaska to the lee of the ridge with onset of surface high pressure. Much of the rest of the state should experience above normal temperatures with the exception of cold air inversion cooled valleys. Meanwhile, expect periodic precipitation chances and enhanced winds on the aforementioned system track and to a less certain degree with lead flow into the Alaskan Peninsula/Kodiak Island and tangentially up into Alaskan Southwest and West/Northwest coastal areas. There is also a growing signal for development of a high wind/wave focusing storms from the North Pacific to the Aleutians and southern Bering Sea by later weekend into next week. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html