Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 655 PM EST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 12Z Sun Feb 09 2025 - 12Z Thu Feb 13 2025 ...High winds across Aleutians and SW mainland late this weekend into early next week; heavy precipitation over parts of Alaska Peninsula... ...Overview... The upper-level pattern will remain mainly stationary with troughing over the North Pacific and western Bering as well as ridging from the Gulf Coast through the mainland. Shortwave energy will likely propagate along the southern periphery of the trough through the Aleutians as well as across the Seward Peninsula and the northern mainland. Deep, occluded low pressure systems are likely to move across the western and central Aleutians. Surface high pressure slowly degrades beneath the retreating upper ridge into western Canada. ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... Both deterministic and ensemble guidance did a fairly good job of capturing the overall synoptic pattern across the Alaska region during the Medium Range period. Small details regarding embedded shortwave energy have yet to be resolved by the guidance, though. A general model blend consisting of the latest deterministic ECMWF/GFS/CMC/UKMET were utilized in the blend between days 4 and 5. No one piece of guidance was favored over another due to the amount of uncertainty present in the guidance. The 06z GEFS and 00z ECENS were introduced to the blend on day 6 and continued through the end of the period while the 00z CMCE was introduced to the blend on day 7 and continued through the end of the period. The deterministic Euro, GFS and CMC were diminished in weighting through the end of the period. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A deep low pressure system will approach the western Aleutians from the north Pacific on Superbowl Sunday. A deep, entrenched area of high pressure across mainland Alaska will promote an increasing pressure gradient between these two areas of central pressure. This will result in high winds across the western Aleutians on Sunday before spreading into the Alaskan Panhandle and Lower Kuskokwim region on Monday. Heavy rain/snow is likely to persist across the Panhandle throughout the period due to the constant troughing and southerly flow into the elevated area. Temperatures should remain around average for much of the Gulf Coast and mainland while a warming trend ensues for the Aleutians and western mainland. Kebede Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html