Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 632 PM EST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 12Z Mon Feb 10 2025 - 12Z Fri Feb 14 2025 ...High winds across Aleutians and SW mainland late early next week; heavy precipitation over parts of Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Islands... ...Overview... The upper-level pattern will remain mainly stationary with troughing over the North Pacific and western Bering as well as ridging from the Gulf Coast through the mainland. Shortwave energy will likely propagate along the southern periphery of the aforementioned trough through the Aleutians as well as across the Seward Peninsula and the northern mainland. Deep, occluded low pressure systems are likely to move across the western and central Aleutians. Surface high pressure slowly degrades beneath the retreating upper ridge into western Canada. ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... The 12z suite of guidance was well clustered around a mass field evolution that featured potent Aleutian troughs strengthening then decaying and retreating over the North Pac/Bering. Models also capture the mainland ridge fairly well, including its split and the ascent of its northern bubble high into the Arctic Sea. Favored a Euro-GFS weighted blend on days 4 and 5, followed by a Euro-ensemble means blend on day 6, ending with an ensemble means blend on days 6 and 7. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Energy associated with a potent mean upper low over the Bering/western Aleutians will propagate north-south through the Alaskan Panhandle and western mainland through the middle of next week. The tight pressure gradient between the deep Aleutian surface low and a strong mainland ridge will result in high winds across the Alaskan Panhandle and Lower Kuskokwim region on Monday. Heavy rain/snow is likely to persist across the Peninsula and Kodiak Island throughout the period due to the persistent troughing and moist southerly flow into the mountainous region. Temperatures should remain around average for much of the Gulf Coast and mainland while a warming trend ensues for the Aleutians and western mainland. Kebede Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html