Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 657 PM EST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 12Z Tue Feb 11 2025 - 12Z Sat Feb 15 2025 ...High winds across Aleutians and SW mainland as well as heavy precipitation over parts of Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island early next week... ...Overview... The upper-level pattern will feature troughing in the North Pac/Bering and ridging over the mainland and panhandle at the beginning of the period. An inverted trough originating over Canada steadily bisects the mainland ridge before settling over the interior by the end of the period. Shortwave energy will likely propagate north across the Bering and western mainland. Cold front pushes southwest across mainland and into Gulf by midweek. ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... Reasonably good agreement on depth and placement of Aleutian upper low feature over the Bering as well as upper ridge over the mainland on day 4. Shortwave energy digging into western AK on day 5 is captured well by the 12z deterministic GFS/Euro/CMC/UKMET. The GFS is quicker with the bisection of the mainland ridge, sending the northern portion well into the Arctic Circle faster than the rest of the deterministic guidance. The GFS also begins to over amplify, compared to other guidance, the Aleutian low on day 5. Notable spread in the 12z GEFS compared to the other means with respect to timing of the upper trough in the North Pac on day 6. Decent clustering, for a day 7 forecast, regarding closed upper low center over the Kamchatka Peninsula. Some differences around the orientation of the inverted trough protruding into the mainland from Canada. The deterministic guidance, while varied on orientation/depth, signals a more amplified pattern over the mainland by day 8 with agreement on shortwave energy propagating eastward across the Aleutians. The Euro is notably slower than the GFS and Canadian with that bit of energy. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Energy associated with a potent mean upper low over the Bering/western Aleutians will propagate northward through the Alaskan Panhandle and western mainland through the middle of next week. The tight pressure gradient between the deep Aleutian surface low and a strong mainland ridge will result in high winds across the Alaskan Panhandle and Lower Kuskokwim region on Tuesday. Heavy rain/snow is likely to continue across the Peninsula and Kodiak Island throughout the period due to the persistent troughing and moist southerly flow from the Gulf and North Pacific into the elevated region. Temperatures should remain around average for much of the mainland while a warming trend ensues for the Aleutians and western mainland, except the Panhandle which should remain cold. An arctic cold front, powered by a shortwave aloft, will push through the eastern mainland early next week and arrive along the Gulf/Southeast Coast by the midweek. This front may focus some precipitation along the coast mid-to-late next week. Kebede Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html