Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 422 PM EST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 12Z Wed Feb 12 2025 - 12Z Sun Feb 16 2025 ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... Model and ensemble guidance is well clustered in the Wednesday into Friday time frame with seemingly overall above normal predictability despite non-traditional flow transition. A 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian model composite was preferred for best detail, albeit with consideration for the smoothing of less resolved smaller scale system variances. Forecast spread increases into longer time frames. This is evident most notably with the 12 UTC GFS by then that is an unlikely outlier solution versus the last few GFS/GEFS runs and other guidance. Opted to instead blend much more compatible guidance from the GEFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensemble means with the 12 UTC ECMWF/Canadian models. This solution also maintains good WPC product continuity. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Amplified upper level flow for Alaska and vicinity will hold through next midweek as highlighted by mean upper troughing from the North Pacific into the Bering Sea and downstream upper ridging from the eastern Gulf of Alaska poleward through the Mainland and the Arctic Ocean. In this pattern, system energies and weather focus will lift through the Aleutians and the Bering Sea, with wet downstream inflow fueling lingering precipitation for the Alaskan Peninsula/Kodiak Island/Southwest AK. In transitional flow, ample and unsettling upper trough energy and height falls will increasingly work over the Interior and North Slope from high latitudes and Canada to undercut and split the Mainland ridge into later next week and weekend. This could support scattered enhanced winds/snows. Meanwhile, an Arctic front on the leading edge of cold high pressure will push down across the Mainland and focus some precipitation as limited moisture is squeezed out of the cooling airmass. The front will eventually settle down into the Gulf of Alaska and through the already cold Southeast to set-up to the north of an uncertain approach of a number of possible Pacific systems slated at this point to likely hold well offshore over the Gulf this period. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html